Tajikistan - TJ - TJK - TJK - Central Asia

The Tajik people came under Russian imperial rule in the 1860s and 1870s, but Russia's hold on Central Asia weakened following the Revolution of 1917. At that time, bands of indigenous guerrillas (known as "basmachi") fiercely contested Bolshevik control of the area, which was not fully reestablished until 1925. Tajikistan was first established as an autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic within Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republic in 1924, but in 1929 the USSR designated Tajikistan a separate republic and transferred to it much of present-day Sughd Province. Ethnic Uzbeks form a substantial minority in Tajikistan, and ethnic Tajiks an even larger minority in Uzbekistan. Tajikistan became independent in 1991 following the breakup of the Soviet Union, and experienced a civil war between political, regional, and religious factions from 1992 to 1997.

Though the country holds general elections for both the presidency (once every seven years) and legislature (once every five years), observers note an electoral system rife with irregularities and abuse, with results that are neither free nor fair. President Emomali RAHMON, who came to power in 1992 during the civil war and was first elected president in 1994, used an attack planned by a disaffected deputy defense minister in 2015 to ban the last major opposition political party in Tajikistan. In December 2015, RAHMON further strengthened his position by having himself declared "Founder of Peace and National Unity, Leader of the Nation," with limitless terms and lifelong immunity through constitutional amendments ratified in a referendum. The referendum also lowered the minimum age required to run for president from 35 to 30, which made RAHMON's first-born son Rustam EMOMALI, the mayor of the capital city of Dushanbe, eligible to run for president in 2020. In April 2020, RAHMON orchestrated EMOMALI's selection as chairman of the Majlisi Milli (the upper chamber of Tajikistan's parliament), positioning EMOMALI as next in line of succession for the presidency. RAHMON opted to run in the presidential election in October 2020 and received 91% of the vote.

The country remains the poorest of the former Soviet republic. Tajikistan became a member of the WTO in March 2013. However, its economy continues to face major challenges, including dependence on remittances from Tajikistani migrant laborers working in Russia and Kazakhstan, pervasive corruption, and the opiate trade and other destabilizing violence emanating from neighboring Afghanistan. Tajikistan has endured several domestic security incidents since 2010, including armed conflict between government forces and local strongmen in the Rasht Valley and between government forces and residents and informal leaders in Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast. Tajikistan suffered its first ISIS-claimed attack in 2018, when assailants attacked a group of Western bicyclists with vehicles and knives, killing four. Friction between forces on the border between Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic flared up in 2021, culminating in fatal clashes between border forces in April 2021 and September 2022.

Tajikistan is a primary transit country along the “Northern Route” for Afghanistan-sourced opiates and cannabis for the Russian and Eastern European markets and beyond; minimal domestic recreational drug use though it is increasing

Tajikistan has a youthful age structure with almost 50% of the population under the age of 25.  As a Soviet republic, Tajikistan had the highest fertility rate in the Soviet Union.  The total fertility rate – the average number of births per woman – was highest in the mid-1970s, when it reached 6.3.  In an effort to expand populations to meet economic goals, the Soviets provided resources that made large families affordable.  The fertility rate decreased to 5 by the time of independence in 1991 and continued to decline thereafter.  In 1996, the Tajik Government discontinued subsidies for large families and having several children became too expensive.  The loss of subsidies, the 5-year civil war that followed independence, and other factors caused fertility to continue to fall steadily, but it remains above replacement level at 2.5.  The availability of healthcare providers and family planning services is limited, contributing to couples having more children than they would like.  As of 2017, 21% of women were using contraceptives.

Tajikistan’s ethnic make-up changed with the Soviet’s introduction of industrialization.  Large numbers of Russian and Ukrainian immigrants arrived in the mid-1920s. Some were forced to immigrate while others came voluntarily to work in the cotton industry and in Tajikistan’s Soviet Government.  The Russian and Ukrainian immigrants formed urban communities, while Tajiks and Uzbeks continued to live predominantly in rural areas.  In addition, thousands of Tatars and Germans were deported to Tajikistan, accused of Nazi complicity during WWII. 

Tajikistan’s ethnic composition was later shaped by the post-independence civil war from 1992-1997 and the economic devastation that followed.  Most non-Tajik ethnic groups, including Uzbeks, Russians, Kyrgyz, and Ukrainians, fled to Russia and other former Soviet republics and many never returned, making the country overwhelming Tajik; approximately 80% of the population was Tajik by 2000. 

Since the mid-1990s, labor has probably been Tajikistan’s main export.  Remittances accounted for 30% of GDP in 2018 and are Tajikistan’s largest source of external income.  Poverty, a lack of jobs, and higher wages abroad push Tajiks to emigrate.  Russia – particularly Moscow – is the main destination, while a smaller number of religious Muslims, usually of Uzbek ancestry, migrate to Uzbekistan.  The vast majority of labor migrants are unskilled or low-skilled young men who work primarily in construction but also agriculture, transportation, and retail.  Many Tajik families are dependent on the money they send home for necessities, such as food and clothing, as well as for education and weddings rather than investment.

Tajikistan-Afghanistan: none identified

Tajikistan-China: in 2006, China and Tajikistan pledged to commence demarcation of the revised boundary agreed to in the delimitation of 2002; in 2011, Tajikistan and China ratified the 2002 border demarcation agreement whereby Tajikistan ceded approximately 1,100 square kilometers in the Pamirs to China

Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan: disputes in Isfara Valley delay delimitation with Kyrgyzstan; in May 2021, both countries agreed to a ceasefire following recent clashes at their border

Tajikistan-Uzbekistan: talks continue with Uzbekistan to delimit border and clear minefields; as of January 2020, Uzbekistan reported that it had cleared all mines along its side of the border